Scheming Oranje's Approach to this Summer's Men's European Championship

By: Kees van Hemmen

                The provisional squad for Oranje, the Dutch Men’s national team, was released this past week for the upcoming European championship. It had some interesting selections, and coupled with news of Virgil van Dijk opting out of the side to continue his rehab, made for some interesting choices for bondscoach Frank de Boer. While I am not Frank de Boer, I do like making interesting choices. And so, below you will find both the final squad I would take to the tournament, as well as a couple of potential lineups I might use with available personnel. Sprinkled in, you may even find some complaints about the provisional squad itself along the way.

One piece of housekeeping we should take care of before I jump in: the way I look at international squads has some built in assumptions. Primarily, I'm of the mind that how a player plays for their club, on a consistent basis, matters far more than how well they've played at international level. While there's environmental differences, generally speaking I feel that the former is a far better basis for assessing quality than the latter. Though squad dynamics matter, and simply selecting the country’s 23 best footballers is certainly folly, club performances will generally take precedent here. Now that that's out of the way, let's jump in. 

Goalkeepers:

Who is coming:

This was pretty easy. There were four keepers in the provisional squad. I'm bringing 3. Jasper Cillessen is the incumbent and in my opinion the side's best man between the sticks. He's a pretty average shot stopper, and vexing as a cross collector, but he's solid with his feet and a decent organizer. I've also brought AZ man Marco Bizot, who won't wow anyone but is a reasonably good all around option on the bench. Finally, I've included Tim Krul. You may remember him for his penalty saving exploits seven years ago against Costa Rica — and that is quite literally why he's coming. Penalties are an occupational hazard at international tournaments, and he really could represent an impact sub as a result - even in the face of the newly enforced 'stand on your line' rule. 

Who is not coming:

Stekelenburg misses out. Sorry pal, we'll never forget that Kaká save. 

Defenders:

Who is coming:

Matthijs de Ligt has been a mainstay in this side since 2017. That will not change this summer, as he's been strong for Juventus this season and will no doubt be a member of the first XI with Virgil van Dijk injured. 

Stefan de Vrij has been the odd man out in this backline for quite some time. Despite being one of Serie A's standout central defenders for the better part of a decade, he's largely played third fiddle to the two aforementioned centrebacks in this piece. Though he plays a slightly different role in Inter Milan's back 3, he's nailed on as a member of this squad for me, and a probable starter. 

Daley Blind is, in my mind, one of the three most important players in this squad. Without the Ajax man's ability on the ball, Oranje frequently struggles to progress the ball centrally. While it's unclear whether he'll be healthy enough to play the full tournament, expanded squads mean his inclusion is a no brainer. If he's healthy, he starts somewhere - whether that be in central defence, at left back, or in defensive midfield. 

Denzel Dumfries is not the most beloved player in this side. Though he's had the first choice right back spot largely monopolized the last few years, he's been far from a standout. Despite captaining one of the country’s biggest sides in Eindhoven giant PSV, his technical skills leave much to be desired going forward in almost every department. Outside of his set piece threat, he's largely an unexciting though physical presence at right-back. That, however, is enough to get him into the final squad. He's a likely, though far from certain starter.

If Denzel Dumfries is an unexciting option on the right, Owen Wijndal could not be more different on the left. Wijndal is the best young left-back that the Netherlands has produced in recent memory, excelling in every phase of play in a mature manner that has many optimistic he will nail down the left flank for many major tournaments to come. This season he’s once again been a rock in the Eredivisie for AZ Alkmaar. His mobility on the left flank, as well as his experience fulfilling sophisticated tactical roles for the North Holland side in buildup, make him excellent competition for Daley Blind in his preferred wide left position. He’s a not-so-sneaky pick to start at this tournament.

A theme you may pick up on in this manifesto of sorts is that the Dutch national team is decidedly bereft of top level talent at right back. Another unexciting wide man that the lions are likely to take to this tournament is Rick Karsdorp. About 5 years ago, the Roma man had the right back spot at national level temporarily nailed down – that changed, however, when he moved to Italy and lost his first choice spot for both club and country. This term he’s been resurgent in the Italian capital, enjoying his best ever campaign outside of Holland. With 0.18 expected goals assisted per 90 minutes played, the former Feyenoord man is an interesting more attacking option for Frank de Boer to consider in place of Dumfries. Though he’s far from elite, he’s done enough to be involved for this side.

In terms of the depth options in the defensive positions I’ve opted for a group of players who make me very nervous, but also have situational utility. Nathan Aké has hardly played for Manchester City this term – and, frankly, I don’t think he’s a centreback worth the fee Pep Guardiola’s side paid for him. That said, he’s in the provisional squad, and a 26 man side means you can’t reasonably drop a left footer who’s competent as a centreback, left-back, and in defensive midfield in a pinch. This is also, incidentally, the part where I complain about Sven Botman’s exclusion from this side. Though his reputation at home is very mixed, having put in inconsistent performances for Jong Ajax and Heerenveen, he was excellent in France this term in a role that hid his difficulty defending space on the turn well. I’d far prefer him in this squad to Aké, but here we are. Joël Veltman makes the side as a utility option that you’d prefer not to use but will manage if necessary in multiple spots. Ajax’s breakout defender Jurrien Timber makes the cut as cover at centreback, with an outside chance to nick the starting spot at right back.

Who is not coming:

Kenny Tete, Jeremiah St. Juste, Patrick van Aanholt and Hans Hateboer all miss out as potential options in defence. Tete had a strong season, but Fulham were relegated and I’m not sure he offers anything Dumfries, Timber, and Karsdorp don’t at right back. Jeremiah St. Juste of Mainz 05 is the last centreback in the provisional squad – an all-action defender who likes a run with the ball, but struggles in the air and has been known to mismanage space. I can’t see a good reason to bring him along despite relatively strong form in the Bundesliga. Van Aanholt offers nothing that isn't available elsewhere in the squad. Finally, Hateboer’s been in poor form for club and country for the better part of a year now. The fact that he’s almost exclusively a wingback makes his inclusion basically indefensible.

Midfielders:

Who is coming:

Barcelona’s Frenkie de Jong is the engine that makes this side go. His skillset makes him uniquely equipped to dominate the environment that top level international football creates. His ball carrying and ability to defend transitions make him a locked in starter for this side.

Georginio Wijnaldum is coming. He’s this side’s leading goalscorer since their resurgence in international football. His role as a runner in attacking midfield is decidedly different from what he offers at club level for Liverpool, but is vital to this side when it’s ticking. He’s the only outfield player who was a regular starter at Oranje’s last major tournament, World Cup 2014, and he is the de facto head of the dressing room with Virgil van Dijk out to injury. He’s an almost certain starter, and will likely score vital goals if this side makes a run. 

Marten de Roon splits fan opinion for the Dutch national team. On the one hand, he was a regular for the Ronald Koeman led side that made its way to the Nations’ League Final 2 years ago. On the other, many feel his performance levels have fallen off under Frank de Boer. 

Oranje scoorde 31 keer in de 17 interlands sinds de Nations League Finals in juni 2019. Bij precies één van die 31 goals stond Marten de Roon binnen de lijnen.

— Joris van den Ban (@jorisvdban) March 25, 2021

Rough Translation: 'Oranje have scored 31 times in 17 matches since the Nations League Finals in June of 2019. For exactly one of the 31 goals [they've scored since], Marten de Roon was on the pitch.'

Some even have gone so far as to draw a relationship between the national team’s difficulty scoring of late, and De Roon’s inclusion. Generally speaking, I think this is a very misplaced criticism. Though De Roon has been far from perfect, I have a lot of trouble blaming one of Serie A’s best defensive midfielders (and, make no mistake, he is just that) for this side’s inability to score goals when footballers like Ryan Babel, Luuk de Jong, and a woefully out of form Steven Bergwijn have been shouldering major minutes in more advanced positions. What the Atalanta man offers as a transition defender has provided this national team with the stability that at one time resulted in consistently dominant results – and his limitations in possession are largely overblown. It’s worth noting that he sits in the 85th percentile for progressive passing amongst Serie A midfielders. While Atalanta's excellently structured buildup no doubt plays a part in those robust numbers, certainly he offers more in terms of ball progression in the deeper areas of midfield than the aforementioned Wijnaldum – who is a notorious side passer with Liverpool. De Roon is coming, and, more than likely, starting. 

Teun Koopmeiners was, at one time, a player I tipped to replace De Roon as Frenkie de Jong’s partner in the double pivot for Oranje. Despite a rocky end to the campaign for him personally, with suspensions and some struggles under pressure marking perhaps his first dip in form for the better part of two years, I still think that is the Alkmaar man’s long term future. He’s one of the best passers in the Dutch top flight, and a very good defender. Recent performances in Europe seem to indicate he may not be as press resistant as you’d like him to be, but he’s certainly a guy who should be coming to the tournament. He has even greater value for this side if Daley Blind can’t play – Koopmeiners is a natural left footer with experience at centreback, and a wand of a left foot that most closely rivals that of Blind in this side. 

Ryan Gravenberch is probably the most exciting inclusion in this squad. The 19 year old has been a regular this term for Eredivisie champions Ajax, and he offers a set of skills that no one else here does. Though some might compare him to Frenkie de Jong, given that they both played predominantly on the left of a double pivot for an Erik ten Hag side, they’re truly quite different. Gravenberch is a far more forward minded player – he likes to receive on the half turn in more advanced positions and drive at goal from there. He’s also a more incisive passer in the final third, and a player who many hope can be a true focal point for a high end attack in the future. Though he does win the ball in volume, it wouldn’t be entirely accurate to call him a defensive midfielder in my eyes. I don’t feel he complements Frenkie well in the pivot, but he’ll certainly be one of my first options off the bench.

Donny van de Beek is a headache of an inclusion here given that he’s hardly played for Manchester United this year. That said, he’s also the obvious heir apparent to Gini Wijnaldum’s Raumdeuter-like role (please forgive me for the terminology) in attacking midfield. In fact, there’s an argument to be made that he’s actually more suited to the role than Wijnaldum – though the Merseyside man’s output is inarguable. While he’s out of form, and his skillset may be redundant, I can’t drop him from the squad. 

I don’t think Tonny Vilhena will play at this tournament. I’d much rather have someone like Davy Pröpper, Calvin Stengs, or Mohamed Ihattaren here. That said – there are good reasons those three didn’t make the provisional squad, and building out an international squad is all about profiles. Vilhena is a dogged presser – a royal pain to play against in a clogged midfield, despite his limitations in possession. I’m not sure there’s anyone like him in this side, and if De Boer’s team needs to protect a lead, Vilhena may prove useful as a late substitution to restore some energy to a depleted group. He’s on the plane.

Who is not coming:

Davy Klaassen is not coming. At his best he’s a generic brand version of Donny van de Beek, and at his worst he’s a net negative as a partner to Frenkie de Jong in the double pivot. 

Forwards:

Who is coming:

Memphis Depay is, in possession, one of Europe’s best forwards. He’s, literally, the centerpiece of this attack. As a centre forward with license to roam, he represents most of the creative threat in the final third, as well as the side’s primary set piece taker. A lock to start.

PSV Eindhoven have been relatively disappointing this season, but that hasn’t stopped Donyell Malen from taking his game up yet another step. He’s electric, and the perfect runner to pair with Memphis as the left inside forward. He’s a likely starter, and if I’d tip anyone in this side to get a slightly-reactionary big money move after a big tournament performance this summer, it’s him. 

Steven Berghuis is the Dutch national team’s best right winger. He has elite passing range, he’s a secondary set piece threat, and he’s an intelligent player off the ball. He’s unsexy as a footballer, but he’s coming on the plane. He might even start. 

Wout Weghorst is coming. Not only that, he’s quite directly replacing the a) less skilled and b) lower workrate Luuk de Jong. Weghorst has been excellent in the German Bundesliga this campaign for Wolfsburg – he has 25 non-penalty goal contributions in league play, and he’s once again been one of the most active pressers in Europe. He won’t start, but you can bet he’ll come on late in games and offer a threat at set pieces and act as a target for the desperation crosses that mark the unstructured attacking play of international football. 

Steven Bergwijn is also in my squad. He’s struggled mightily for Tottenham Hotspur since his January 2020 transfer – however, he can play on both wings, and he’s shown flashes since Jose Mourinho’s sacking that indicate he may be on an upward trajectory. I’d prefer he not start, but there aren’t better depth options.

Cody Gakpo largely ate up the minutes Steven Bergwijn left behind in Eindhoven – and of late, he’s made a star turn with them. He impressed, in particular, in March for Jong Oranje as the side’s main man. I’m not sure it’s prudent that he see major minutes, but he could prove impactful as a late, more withdrawn creative threat on the left.

Everyone in the Netherlands knows exactly what Quincy Promes is at this point. He’s a good off ball runner who offers little to nothing in the way of on ball creativity. That makes him uniquely suited to playing beside Memphis Depay – but also a player who can be infuriating when isolated out wide. With some bonus points for having experience at right wingback, he's on the plane.

Who is not coming:

Luuk de Jong is not coming, mostly for reasons mentioned above. Though Koeman and De Boer have treated him as practically undroppable, and there may be reasons behind the scenes for that that I am unaware of, I can only work with what’s in front of me. And Luuk de Jong just is not that good. Anwar El Ghazi also misses out, despite his best campaign outside of Holland for Aston Villa. 

The Final Squad:

        This is the part where I talk about losing Virgil van Dijk. For starters: it’s obviously a blow. Van Dijk is the best defender in the world, this team’s captain, and a massive enabler when it comes to some of our preferred tactics. He’s the best high line defender in the world, and a massive set piece threat. All of that said – Stefan de Vrij is a very, very good centreback. There are much thinner places in this squad, and there is definitely a way to configure this side such that they manage without him. 

My main worry when it comes to losing Van Dijk is how it ultimately affects shape. The way I see it, you have three options when it comes to working around Virgil’s loss.

1. De Vrij directly replaces Van Dijk

Pros: 

Basically the pro of this lineup is continuity. De Vrij slots directly into Van Dijk’s role and you run things the same way: the ball progression runs through the left side, with Frenkie and Daley Blind passing vertically, working combinations and driving into space with Memphis and Gini Wijnaldum receiving higher up. From there, Memphis, Gini, and Blind try to work cutback opportunities from the byline, and cute little clipped balls behind the opposition line into the area for Wijnaldum and Malen. Another preferred avenue for chance creation in this setup is working a corner, or a freekick wide outside the area, where Memphis is an elite deadball operator.

Cons:

Literally everything else. De Vrij, while excellent, has been poor in a back 2 for the national team, and doesn’t have the pace or body control that allows Van Dijk to cover for Blind in transition when he’s caught high. He’s also not quite the passer Van Dijk is, instead more reliant on driving with the ball as the spare man in the middle of a back 3 for Internazionale. While this is the most likely solution, I can’t see much better than a quarterfinals appearance – in the best case – with this as the primary lineup.

            2. Blind, Koopmeiners, and Wijndal on the left

Pros:

Daley Blind, unlike Stefan de Vrij, is a naturally left sided player with extensive experience for Ajax and Manchester United as the left sided centreback. This also allows us to fit in Owen Wijndal, who is a much more marauding athletic force on the left side of defence. In many ways, this could either expose or protect Blind, depending on how Wijndal is used – he’s a better athlete, so he can track back better. However, because he’s a better athlete, he’ll probably get forward more aggressively, leaving Blind more exposed. This selection also features Teun Koopmeiners over Marten de Roon. This is predominantly because he has a close relationship with Owen Wijndal on the pitch for AZ Alkmaar, and is more positionally responsible at times on the left than Frenkie de Jong. The hope here is that he shields Blind to some extent, while perhaps forming a kind of natural partnership with Wijndal, the likes of which so often represent some of the strongest tactical links at international level. 

Cons:

International tournaments are frequently decided by set pieces. They’re a massively important facet of play, as energy depleted teams with minimal tactical instruction rarely have the tools to break down defensive blocks. As a result, set pieces represent an outsized portion of goals. One of Oranje’s strengths under Koeman, with Van Dijk in the side, was at set pieces: De Ligt and Van Dijk were indomitable from corners and wide free kicks – both scoring and preventing vital goals. With Blind in the side over Van Dijk (and now De Vrij) we have a problem – this team is suddenly extremely weak at set pieces. Not only that, but this shunts Frenkie de Jong unnaturally onto the right side of midfield, and away from Daley Blind. This lineup may be useful in the group stages, but I foresee an early exit if it’s used after that.

3. A Back 3

Pros:

There are a lot of pros with this lineup. For starters, it gets quite a few players in their preferred positions. Malen is on the left of a front 2, where he’s starred for PSV Eindhoven. Memphis and Gini’s roles largely don’t change. Owen Wijndal and Rick Karsdorp are largely relieved of their defensive responsibilities, allowing them to focus on their play in the final third. Frenkie de Jong and Marten de Roon’s pivot is preserved – and, if one was so inclined, this may be a scenario where Ryan Gravenberch might feature over De Roon for a more forward minded, creative spark. Finally, at the back, Daley Blind can enjoy the same withdrawn progressive role he would have on the left of a defensive 2, while still protected by Stefan de Vrij in his natural position in the midst of a back 3. Not only that, but Matthijs de Ligt remains largely in his natural spot on the right. If I were feeling particularly spicy [read: pragmatic], I might replace Karsdorp with Dumfries, and Malen with Weghorst. That would give this side 4 dominant aerial threats at set pieces, and just generally make it one of the more rugged, physical sides in the tournament. That formula worked for Oranje in South Africa a decade ago quite well.

Cons:

The Dutch national team has not enjoyed success in a back 3 since 2014 under Louis van Gaal. At this point, it’s a largely foreign system, and there’s very little time to implement the principles it demands. This system also fails to leverage one of this side’s biggest advantages, and rarest distinctions: the centreback personnel to effectively play a back 4 with a high line. Most sides do not have 2 aerially sound, ball playing centrebacks with a reasonable amount of comfort in space. Oranje do, and electing for a back 3 means sacrificing numbers in front of the ball that they're otherwise equipped to field. In some ways it's like rowing a performance sailboat because you don't like color of the sails.

Anyway, that’s all. A lot of the lineups change drastically based on Daley Blind’s availability – I could write an entire article on how critical the Ajax man is to this side, and the outlook for this team is quite poor without him once the latter stages are reached. Generally speaking, I’m probably on the more optimistic end of Oranje supporters in still expecting a reasonably strong showing this June – the group is relatively weak, and I still think this side has some advantages that few others in Europe do. On top of that, knockout football is a crapshoot, and anything can happen. Here’s to hoping. Hup Holland Hup!

All Data Courtesy of StatsBomb via fbref.com