Stengs and Stengsibility: The Story of Two Eredivisie Wingers
If you're reading this article there’s a good chance that you already know who Calvin Stengs is. The 21 year old AZ Alkmaar winger has been widely discussed in footballing circles for the majority of this campaign, having stolen the show in the Europa League group stages, putting in a particularly impressive – yet ultimately fruitless – performance against Manchester United in his side’s home tie against the English giants. The silky smooth inverted winger has become known, in particular, for his wand of a left foot.
Without a doubt, Stengs is one of the world’s best threaded passers in his age group. Beyond being ludicrously enjoyable to watch, it’s also almost certainly his most transferable skill as he climbs up the European league hierarchy. As I discussed at slightly greater length here, through balls create some of the highest quality chances in football: 1v1s with the goalkeeper. Regardless of league, this is a valuable asset, and one that shouldn’t be significantly more difficult to execute in a more strenuous competition. His 0.4 through balls per match is tied for the Eredivisie lead with Chelsea-bound Hakim Ziyech, and is no doubt one of the factors that sees him amongst the Dutch league’s leaders in expected assists.
For context, the four players above Stengs in xA are as follows: the aforementioned Premier League baller-to-be Hakim Ziyech, former Southampton star Dusan Tadic, the league’s golden boot winner in 28 year old Steven Berghuis, and recently moved Tottenham Hotspur winger Steven Bergwijn. Essentially, by creative output, Stengs falls solidly in the, ‘Too good for this league’ tier. Long, pitch spanning through balls aren’t the only thing in his arsenal, either.
Calvin’s variety of incisive passes when on his left foot is very exciting, no doubt. Excellent anticipation, coupled with consistently strong weight on each pass gives him the potential to be one of the best final third creators in the world. Though you’d perhaps like to see him increase his crossing output in order to diversify his skillset vs. deep blocks (only 0.5 successful crosses per 90 this term), he has also shown a talent for it on the few occasions he’s been forced to play the ball in the air. It should also be mentioned that part of this tendency not to cross the ball is almost certainly down to his manager’s preference for cutbacks on the ground.
A perhaps underappreciated facet of Stengs’ game is his positioning and movement off the ball. There’s a lot that statement can mean, so let me be more specific: for a ball dominant inverted winger at his age, he’s unusually aware of when to maintain width and when to come inside and receive between the lines. This is difficult to illustrate in just a few clips, but I’ve done my best to assemble a few of his best bits in this capacity below.
Almost built into this understanding of when to hold width is an understanding of fullback positioning. Something Arne Slot’s AZ has been particularly good at doing is freeing up their fullbacks to get to the byline, and no player on the team has a better comprehension of or ability to execute this particular pattern than Calvin.
Part of what allows Stengs to be so effective in freeing overlapping fullbacks to get to the byline is his dribbling prowess: he’s currently completing 2.4 dribbles per 90, which puts him amongst the 20 most prolific players in the Dutch top flight. The threat that he poses on the ball no doubt contributes to his ability to freeze wide markers, allowing his teammates to more easily reach the byline to cut the ball back.
Though Calvin is an effective enough dribbler in the Eredivisie, there are caveats. What Stengs does in these clips, and with the ball at his feet in general, is very pleasing to the eye. There’s no questioning that. However, as enjoyable as these clips are, there’s actually small cause for concern here. Though Calvin clearly has immense technical ability with the ball at his feet, he’s actually not an elite athlete for a top level winger. This isn’t the end of the world by any means, but there is a history of technically gifted yet otherwise physically underdeveloped wingers dominating on the dribble in Holland, only to struggle against better wide defenders abroad. Take, for example, the clip where Stengs is caught isolated in a 1v3 on the left. Though what he manages to do is an excellent piece of skill, the defending in question is shambolic.The right back completely disengages, and then puts in a half-hearted challenge, while neither of the other opponents he beats move to cover behind. A great example of a player who confronted this is former Manchester United winger Memphis Depay: having played against lower quality defenders in the low country, he found himself frequently vexed by the Premier League’s physically superior and more disciplined fullbacks. Memphis overcame this challenge after putting on serious upper body weight that allowed him to hold off defenders, and that may prove an option for Stengs, but it’s something to keep an eye on going forward regardless.
Another potential criticism that could be made of Calvin is that he’s very reliant on his left foot. This bears out in the data: he sits in the 4th percentile for two footedness in passing amongst attackers in the Europa League this season. This isn’t necessarily a dealbreaker, though. His distribution with his left foot is already elite, and that high level delivery coupled with responsible decision making, a great sense for ball circulation (he’s excellent at switching play by cutting inside and drilling the ball cross pitch to his opposite number, Oussama Idrissi) more than make up for the deficiency. Not to mention that his excellent relationship with overlapping fullbacks in many ways directly makes up for his disinclination to cut onto his right. Even in a Europa League campaign where his expected assists output was decidedly low by his standards, he still managed to pump the ball into the penalty box at an elite rate, both in the air and on the ground.
I’ve only scratched the surface of Stengs’ ability here. Amongst the other things in his locker: he’s clever with short 1-2s and quick flicks when involved in first phase buildup, especially when springing counter attacks. This could prove particularly valuable in a bigger league, where he may find himself in a less ball dominant team more reliant on counterattacking. Beyond that, though goalscoring is certainly not his calling card – mainly due to positional tendencies and a disinclination to attack the six yard box – he actually has a fairly wide variety of strikes at his disposal when cutting inside onto his left. It seems plausible that he could become an above average finisher on the strength of lower probability shots from the edge of the box using that skill.
You may now be asking, ‘Kees, if he’s so good at these things, why don’t you show us?’ Well, it’s time I levelled with you. Our mutual friend Calvin was just bait. I had to save some space for the guy I actually brought you here to talk about.
Calvin Stengs is what the general footballing world expects of the modern creator. He’s silky. He’s got a left foot of gold and controls matches with high volume on the ball usage and defense splitting passes worthy of hollywood movies. Tack on a hairstyle of note (though he may be on hairline watch) and you’ve got all the ingredients football fans look for in a young superstar. Luis Sinisterra doesn’t have any of those things. He doesn’t dominate the ball nearly the same way Stengs does. He doesn’t really have the 40 yard end to end through ball in his creative toolkit. Worst of all, he rocks a very conservative close cut hairstyle. Despite all that, Sinisterra is arguably outproducing Stengs in the same domestic league while being just a tad younger to boot.
From a data perspective, there’s so much to love about Luis Sinisterra. Only three players in the Eredivisie are exceeding his output in both non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes and expected assists per 90 minutes: Hakim Ziyech (again), Dusan Tadic (again x2), and the third of Ajax’s criminally overqualified trifecta, Quincy Promes. I’m going to get to his creative passing in a moment, but one of the things that’s really exciting about Sinisterra is how he generates his expected goal output: rather uniquely amongst wingers his age, he does it not through volume shooting from low quality positions, but rather through mature movement in the penalty area in order to generate high xG shots.
This predatory box movement and positioning has seen Sinisterra gain another statistical distinction: only one player in the Eredivisie is shooting more while maintaining a shot quality of 0.175 npxG per shot or higher according to TussenDeLinies. If that isn’t convincing enough, consider the following: Sergio Aguero, in Manchester City’s goal manufacturing plant of an attack, is taking shots of only 0.16 npxG per shot on average, while Europe’s leading goalscorer Robert Lewandowski is managing just 0.18 npxG per shot. Señor Sinisterra is in good company.
What’s even more exciting about this high shot quality is the supporting context: Sinisterra’s 8.4 touches in the box per 90 minutes is an immaculate figure for a wide player, and indicative of the fact that he’s touching the ball in danger areas with great frequency. For most players, getting on the end of one or two high quality chances every match would be the main aspect of their skillset. That’s not even the true for Sinisterra. If anything, it’s peripheral. Where he really stands out is in the variety of ways he can beat a man off the dribble, and how he pairs that with two footed delivery to create chances for his teammates.
Exhibit A: Burst
Here we see Sinisterra play a pretty simple 1-2 off the left back Ridgeciano Haps. Nothing special in and of itself, but he does go from walking pace to a yard and a half behind the defender over the course of about 10 yards, only to drill a left footed cross across the box to Nicolai Jørgensen. Make note of two things here: 1) the burst and 2) the foot he makes the delivery with.
Here we again see Sinisterra beat his man with elite acceleration, cutting the ball across with his left foot for the chance.
If it’s not sinking in yet, this clip makes it all too clear: Sinisterra is an elite – elite – athlete. His burst over short spaces is probably unmatched in the Eredivisie, and here it wins Feyenoord a penalty after the fullback failed to give himself enough space.
Exhibit B: Technical Skill/Trickery on the Dribble
Luis isn't just a pace merchant. Here he again shows that he’s comfortable going in either direction, first cutting in looking for the shot before shifting his weight and cutting back towards the byline. Both the dummy he uses to beat the first man, and then the feint and shoulder drop for the second, are great pieces of skill.
Here the Colombian squares the fullback, freezes him with a bit of skill, and then beats him inside to get a shot off with his right. More bits of technical skill, more burst, and even more of that unsettling two footedness.
Exhibit C: Straight Line Speed
Played in behind from midfield here, Sinisterra has to deal with a poorly weighted pass. How does he manage it? In the space between the by line and where he starts (roughly 25 yards) he goes from 3-4 yards behind the defender to about 2 in front of him. Not only is Sinisterra a great athlete over short spaces, but he also has excellent straight line speed.
Some important things you might takeaway from these clips? First off, Sinisterra’s an incredible quick burst athlete, and a pretty impressive straight line sprinter as well. He also has fantastic change of direction and confidence with both feet, which allows him to shift both the ball and his weight to beat a man and either play in a teammate or get a shot off. This cocktail of skills makes him a deadly dribbler: he’s generating 4.1 successful dribbles per 90 minutes with a robust success rate given his volume. Make no mistake, though: Sinisterra’s excellent 0.21 xA per 90 minutes isn’t simply a function of cutbacks from the wing: his two-footedness has plenty of utility when it comes to between the lines creation as well.
[Left Foot]
[Right Foot]
[Right Foot]
The fact that Sinisterra is capable of attacking a deep block from both the wide areas as well as through the middle is a great sign for his viability outside the Eredivisie. The combination of extreme shot quality, elite change of direction and burst, along with quality distribution and decision making with both feet is an excellent, not to mention unique package for a 21 year old winger to offer. If nothing else, upon leaving the Eredivisie he would represent an effective dribbler with solid goal threat who won't needlessly waste possession. As far as worst outcomes go, that's about as good as it gets for wingers coming out of Holland's top flight.
What does this have to do with Stengs, then? Well, any time players in the Eredivisie are in question – especially young players – we're in some capacity discussing how they would translate to a more strenuous competition. A lot of the time when this conversation is broached, a variety of platitudes surface: 'He won't adapt to the Premier League, he's just beating up on kids' or 'He'll struggle with the quality gap' are two very popular instances of this. While there is truth in both of these, to an extent, they're slightly reductive. Generally speaking, the jump from one league to another isn't just about quality, it's about the popular defensive and attacking structures of the leagues. The Premier League sees lower defensive line heights and more passes completed in the final third than any of the other top 5 leagues, indicative of the widespread use of low defensive blocks outside the league's top 6 sides. La Liga sees the lowest PPDA (passes per defensive action) of any of the major leagues, indicative of a higher pressing intensity than any other league. The Bundesliga sees the most pressures in the attacking third where the Serie A sees the fewest, showing the stereotyped tactical difference between German Geigenpressing and whatever remnants of Catenaccio still remain in Italy.
With these style-based tactical difference amongst leagues, it is perhaps better to consider where a player moving from the Eredivisie would see their qualities best put to use, as opposed to whether or not they broadly 'have the quality to adjust.' Applying this to Calvin Stengs and Luis Sinisterra, we can come to two very different conclusions. The crown jewel of the Dutchman's skill set is his ability to play behind a defense. Where might that be more effective? The inclination of even the smallest Bundesliga teams to press from the front has had the effect of creating a league where teams are stretched vertically in defense, with more space between the lines and in behind to play the ball. Through balls are also more prominent in Germany, demonstrating the greater opportunity for playing behind the defense. This seems to indicate that perhaps Calvin's skillset would bear the most fruit across The Netherlands' eastern border. Stengs' dribbling style is also more suited to carrying in open space, with an emphasis on body feints as opposed to quick bursts of acceleration. That again points to Germany as a positive environment for his growth.
Sinisterra, as we discussed, has a different skillset. With his pace, the opportunity to run in behind in the Bundesliga would likely suit him as well, but his game is also more reliant on dribbling to break down the defense, as well as blindside movement into the penalty box to get on the end of high quality chances. The latter two skills could potentially prove more salient in a league with a higher prevalence of low blocks. Close control, high acceleration dribblers have proven highly effective in England (take for example Eden Hazard, Raheem Sterling, and more recently Christian Pulisic), whereas France sees the lowest shot quality of the continent's most competitive leagues. In the latter case, low shot quality is indicative of the prevalence of the low block: sides struggling to produce good opportunities against teams dug in within their own half are often forced into speculative punts from long range. Sinisterra's exploitation of space in the opposing penalty area could thus prove particularly valuable in such an environment.
Neither of these assessments is conclusive, obviously. However, by considering whether or not a player's strengths are best utilized in a new competition, perhaps we may begin to see fewer 'flops,' coming out of lower leagues [read: The Netherlands] and instead bear witness to greater success amongst young transfers. This isn't to say that Stengs couldn't find success in England, either, or that Sinisterra would certainly flourish in France more than the Dutchman. But considering the distinctions between leagues not in vague terms such as 'quality gap' or 'difference in physicality,' but rather in greater detail, is undoubtedly a superior process for evaluating and understanding how players will adapt internationally.
P.S. – This didn’t fit into the piece neatly, but I found it fun: you’d have to imagine Luis dreamt of scoring this goal once or twice before he actually did it.
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